18.12.08

Difficult conditions continue


Difficult conditions continue and I expect this will carry on until we see exactly how bad things are. There have been a lot of statements recently from companies, which while cautious, weren't exactly disastrous.
 
But until the market see how interest rates cuts and everything else works out I can't see where any good news is coming from just yet. Of course falling oil and food prices should help. But markets do look forward quite a way and they will be going up well before the recession has ended. 
 
So all in all I continue to think it's best for me to hold mainly cash and continue to keep stakes low and not be tempted to get stuck in for the mo.
 
However rightly or wrongly I'm excited about next year because I think the markets will bounce back very strongly and if I can get in near the bottom there's going to be a lot of money to be made.. but probably not just yet!
 
I've been fiddling round here and there with a little shorting while waiting for a turnaround - I alighted on Spectris (SXS) only because it hasn't been hammered as bad as some of the companies in its sector and went in for a tenner at 415. Target 350 stop 425. Set a fairly tight stop in case the markets turn.  
 
A mixed and hard to read statement from Vislink which I've been holding a while. Revenue up not so sure on profits. I got seduced by some really substantial director buying very recently - seems to me that statement was already in the price. So strangely perhaps I sold some at 23.5 to take a loss of £425 on one position.. but I also bought because I thought the sudden spin to 20p looked overdone and got 5,000 at 20.9. Yes, I'm just a crazy kinda guy. Hey, maybe the directors have a death wish and will get stuck in again..
 
I sold half my Celsis at 156.72 for a profit of £146 and kind of regret it as it remains very strong in a weak market - however I guess at least some profit banked and I keep the other position going. Looks like it's going higher though..
 
Redhall's been looking weak again so I exited at 202 for a profit of £307 - would eye up a re-entry as when recovery comes this is going to be a big winner. 
 
I wasn't bowled over with Waterman's statement and was surprised to be able to exit first thing at 81.5 easily for a profit of £20. Oh and I got a dividend too! Possible recovery candidate at some point. Fenner was heading towards the stop fast and with sellers coming in again I exited at 80.53 for a loss of £55. Since then it's sunk even further - it looks a really tempting buy - a director bought more today so keeping an eye for another entry. Got to be worth more than currently?
 
Oils not surprisingly remain under the hammer. I sold Heritage at 182.5 for a profit of £319. However I do think it'll get taken over at some point and remain vigilant for reentry. And I sold part Dragon at 147.5 to take profits on the last pos of £247. Still seems buying interest there and I might buy some back.
 
All of which malarkey makes profits for the site today of £559.
 
So, really not much open right now. Telecom Plus remains a solid hold but for now- it could be a surprise entry into the FTSE 250 in December if it can maintain the current price.
 
 Spreadbetting looks a bit dangerous for now given the sudden and vicious spikes. 
 
Things can change quickly but I intend to let the market guide me and I just can't second guess it - way too hard at the moment. As the volatile conditions continue I think generally better mainly out than in and wait and see. Best trade could continue to be no trade for a bit.
Source: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/the_naked_trader/362/difficult-conditions-continue-0362.html

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